Welcome to a New BCS Reality
Stick a fork in the Big 12 and the Big East. They’re done. At least as far as “big time” football is concerned. The Big East might have a life of college basketball significance ahead of it, but you’ll only see the likes of Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Seton Hall and Marquette continue the Big East basketball tradition. Soon enough, all of the Big East football programs will move on to become BCS superschools or non-BCS nobodies.
That’s where college football is headed. Think of it as an asteroid on a collision course with the earth, and there’s no way to stop it. The PAC 10 is on it’s way to becoming the PAC 16, and it’s taking the Big 12 down in the process. PAC 10 Commissioner Larry Scott (pictured left) now has permission from the PAC 10 schools to pursue half of the Big 12. Nebraska and Missouri will migrate to the Big 10. The Big 10 will also suck up a few Big East teams (and Notre Dame potentially) on the way to becoming the Big 16 and stretching from Nebraska to New York City. The ACC and SEC will eventually round out the lot of 16 team super conferences and you’ll eventually have a new BCS Championship plan; complete with an eight team bracket courtesy of four conference championships that will play down to a four team national semi-final and a winner takes all National Championship game.
In order to get there, the ACC and SEC will also have to add teams. Expect there to be a mad scramble to get in before the door closes. If the PAC 10 succeeds in getting Texas and Texas A&M out of the Big 12, then the SEC will have a harder road in getting to 16. Texas Tech, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State may be left on an island in the middle of the plains states. Teams without a BCS affiliation. For the SEC and ACC, they’ll want big schools that expand their footprint but give them continuity.
UConn, Syracuse, Pitt and West Virginia could be most attractive to the ACC. Don’t count out Central Florida and East Carolina, but those schools would take a back seat to any geographically sensible Big East teams that need a home. If the Big 10 were to take Rutgers and Syracuse, the ACC could easily snap up UConn, Pitt, West Virginia and South Florida in order to get to 16 teams.
The SEC would have to make a dash for teams as well in order to keep up with the Joneses. Other Big East castoffs could fit the bill if the SEC would lower it’s sights from Texas, which the SEC still covets. Louisville, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Baylor could end up in the SEC, just because they’re the only current BCS teams that would get a cursory glance from SEC Presidents. Realistically, Cincinnati and Louisville don’t fit the SEC mold because they’re urban institutions, but when the SEC is forced, they’ll go for teams that are currently “haves” rather than pick up a few schools that are seen as “have nots”.
That’s not to say that a school or two might not flip from the ACC to the SEC. It’s possible. Clemson or Florida State could be talked into jumping. Right now it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.
So what about Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Memphis, UCF, East Carolina and all of the other schools that have lived the BCS dream or had hopes of taking part in the money train? It looks like the train is about to leave the station. Now’s the time to fight for a ticket. Otherwise, a number of schools could get left standing beside the tracks, luggage in hand.
Conference Expansion Rumor Mill Turns; Little Local Effect
Jim Delaney, Commissioner of the Big 10
The biggest offseason buzz in College Football is about conference expansion. The Big 10 has announced that it’s studying expansion, perhaps by one, three or even five teams. If The Big 10 expands, other conferences could follow suit. In fact, if any conference is negatively impacted by an expansion of the Big 10, that conference almost has to look to fill the void, which will set off a domino effect of expansion related vacancies and pickups. Will any regional schools be affected?
The Big 10 currently has 11 members. Since Penn State was added in the ’90s, the Big 10 has had 11 teams. The push to move to 12 is due in part to the BCS standard of having two six team divisions so that a 12 team league can have a championship game. Championship games bring in more revenue. The Big 10 is already perhaps the richest conference in all of college football due to the fact that they own their own network: The Big 10 network. If the Big 10 could add a team, they’ll get to 12 teams and they can host a football championship game. The Big 10 might want to go to 14 or 16 teams just to keep other conferences from outdoing the Big 10.
There are rumors afoot that other conferences are considering adding to their numbers as well. The SEC is rumored to be considering adding teams just add to the attractiveness of the league and to attract more revenue. The PAC10 has been rumored to be working on getting to twelve teams. That would also allow them to create a conference championship game. The Big East may follow suit, but they have a more interesting conundrum. The Big East could get picked apart by the Big 10, ACC, SEC and or Big 12. There’s a possibility that a conference like the Big East or Big 12 could go away altogether, especially if a group of superconferences is formed.
According to a Kansas City radio report, the Big 10 offered membership to Nebraska, Missouri, Notre Dame and Rutgers. Notre Dame might not take the offer, but the addition of three teams would get the Big 10 up to 14 teams, take two from the Big 12 and one from the Big East. The SEC is perhaps the only conference that has the clout to pursue the nation’s money printing football machine: Texas. Wherever Texas goes, Texas A&M will follow. That’s been proven. If the SEC takes Texas and Texas A&M out of the Big 12 after Nebraska and Missouri bolt for the Big 10, the Big 12 would be down to eight. There’s also a chance that Colorado could be a team headed for the PAC10. That puts the Big 12 down to seven.
A little closer to home, the Big East could collapse from an eight team football conference into near nothingness. Rutgers could be the first to go with their possible departure to the Big 10. Connecticut, Pitt or Syracuse have been rumored as possibilities as well. The Big 12 could dip into the Big East in a move to keep them from folding. If the Big 12 could hold on to Texas and Texas A&M, they could remedy the potential loss of Nebraska and Missouri by picking up Cincinnati and Louisville. Before figuring that’s ridiculous, you have to figure that there are few other options for the Big 12 to pick up new teams that help their geographic footprint. Houston and TCU are possibilities, but the Big 12 has enough Texas schools already. Memphis could make the leap, but it seems like a longshot.
The ACC is one league that has the potential to be untouched. It’s been discussed that the SEC might want to come after Florida State and Miami, or possibly Clemson, but it doesn’t seem that the SEC is really interested in expanding. If they went after anyone, Texas would offer the most fertile region for expansion.
If the ACC is unaffected, then it’s quite possible that schools in the Mid-Atlantic would maintain the status quo. East Carolina would love to join a BCS conference, but right now the only option seems to be the Big East. Since they have only eight football playing members, the Big East could be the most likely to implode at this point. Then again, Conference USA schools like ECU, UCF, Memphis, Marshall and even Southern Miss have been discussed as potential members for the Big East. Boston College and Maryland have been mentioned as ready to go back to the Big East, but it’s hard to see that happening.
As of now, it seems that it would be a longshot to see any regional university change conferences. Then again, a lot could happen over the next few months.
NCAA Ends Coach-Group Recruiting
Head Coach Gene Chizik and fired up Auburn fans (Photo: Bernard Troncale)
The NCAA handed down a new ruling on Thursday limiting the number of coaches that universities can send on recruiting visits. The NCAA limits coaches visits for evaluation and face-to-face conversation to certain periods of the year, but until now never limited the number of coaches that could come to visit a school or player. Effective immediately, the NCAA limits any university to two coaches visiting a school for the purposes of recruiting a high school football player.
According the NCAA, the rule was initiated by activity in the Big East but one of the most notable programs affected is Auburn University. Auburn was recently known for a recruiting tactic known as “the Tiger Prowl” where an entire team of coaches would show up for an official visit to a high school, quite often showing up in a limosine in order to make a big impression on a recruit.
According to a statement by the NCAA, “Many institutions are unnecessarily expending resources in order to have multiple assistant coaches attend these evaluations as a result of the perceived recruiting benefit.” The statement went on, “By permitting only two football coaches per institution to visit a prospective student-athlete’s school on any given evaluation day, it would preclude institutions from sending a large number of assistant coaches to a school just for perception purposes.”
Feedback from Auburn and its detractors varies, of course. Auburn brought in one of the nation’s top recruiting classes in 2010, and Head Coach Gene Chizik has already changed the terminology within his program. A “Tiger Prowl” in Auburn parlance is part of a Fan Fest event, not a recruiting visit according to Chizik. Fans around the SEC have already been quick to say that Auburn recruiting needs more than one good class in order for the program to become truly competitive.
Either way, the NCAA is trying to level the playing field by keeping expenses to a reasonable level for all. This way, ”big time” programs can’t flex too much financial muscle and beat out smaller programs just because their budgets are bigger. Is it Socialism? In a way yes. What choices are there? There are so many ways to discuss this type of “leveling the field”, but in the end the bigger programs are always going to have more advantages. It’s up to the smaller schools to recruit smartly and train their recruits to become big time ball players.
Beatty Adds Recruiting Coordinator Title at WVU
The promotion says a lot about Chris Beatty as a man, as a coach and as a recruiter. WVU coach Bill Stewart has announced that Coach Chris Beatty will add the responsibilities of Director of Recruiting to his plate. Additionally, Beatty will coach Fullbacks in 2010. That group is added to his current responsibilities of coaching running backs and slot receivers.
Beatty’s rise to coaching stardom has been a quick one. Beatty was a high school coach until Percy Harvin finished his high school career at Landstown High School in Virginia Beach. Beatty moved on to become offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Hampton University in 2006. In 2007, Beatty became running backs coach at Northern Illinois. The departure of Rich Rodriguez from West Virginia opened the door for Beatty to join a BCS staff. Beatty started his tenure at WVU in 2008 and hasn’t looked back.
Beatty has been recognized as a top recruiter and now will head up the recruiting efforts for WVU since the departure of Doc Holliday who moved on to become head coach at Marshall University. Since Beatty has numerous 757 connections, you can expect Beatty and WVU to continue to recruit heavily here.
Congrats on the promotion, Coach Beatty!
BCS Dominos About to Fall?
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that a consulting firm has come back to the Big 10 with 15 viable candidates for a pending expansion of the conference. Wisconsin Athletic Director Barry Alvarez told the paper that the initial report included a full analysis of what each program would bring to the Big 10, so that Big 10 officials could adequately consider each candidate.
From the Journal-Sentinel, quoting Alvarez: “They talked about academics. They talked about size. They talked about size of their arenas. They talked about attendance. They talked about the populace in that specific area.” In other words, many factors will go into making the decision, but it sounds as though media market and potential draw will rule the decision. That’s common for these types of moves.
Many schools are under consideration. It’s equally important to note who was not included in the report. Texas was not included in the report, and Notre Dame seems to be out of consideration as well. Quoting Alvarez again, “My read is that Notre Dame wants to be a national school, and they want to play a national schedule.” Alvarez also noted that there’s some anticipation that the Pac 10 will expand to twelve and many schools are trying to anticipate how all of the moves could affect the big picture.
There’s a school of thought that Utah and Colorado could be accepted into the Pac 10. Missouri might move to the Big 10. That would give both conferences 12 teams but would leave the Big 12 with ten teams. Arkansas could be interested in renewing rivalries with Texas, hearkening back to the crazy days of the Southwest Conference. If Arkansas moved to the Big 12, the SEC would have to pick up a team.
The Big East is not out of the woods either. The Big 10 could pick up a Big East school like Syracuse, Rutgers or Pitt. If the SEC has to go shopping, they could look at Miami, Florida State, Louisville or West Virginia. Boston College might look to move to the Big East, plus ECU, UCF and Memphis have made no secret of their desires to jump to a BCS conference.
According to Alvarez, the Big 10 will continue to consider its options and Big Ten Commissioner James E. Delany could make a recommendation to the conference’s university presidents this summer. Then again, if another conference decides to move before then, the process could move along more quickly.
Expect more rumors to surface and expect things to heat up very soon.
BCS Conference Expansion Rumors Abound
It started a few months ago with the Big 10 talking about expanding to 12. They already have eleven teams, but the “Big 11″ just doesn’t have the same ring to it.
The logical choice for the Big 10 would be to add Notre Dame, but Notre Dame has already rebuffed them. The Big 10 has since turned its eyes toward the Big East. That has the Big East looking to defend itself by adding teams ASAP.
What’s driving all of this? Money of course. There’s big money in season ending championship games and the television money that comes along with BCS prominence. In order to secure their position and take a bigger slice of the pie, the Big 10, Pac 10 and Big East are all angling to build their conferences and hold a championship game that would determine the conference’s top team.
The Big East is in the most complicated position since they currently have a 16 member conference where all schools play basketball but only eight members play football in conference. The easiest solution might be to separate the BCS football schools from the non-Division I-A football schools, but from there who would get the Big East name? The heritage basketball programs such as Villanova, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s and Seton Hall could easily lay claim to making the Big East a household name. After all, most of the football schools are “Johnny Come-latelys” when it comes to building a name for the Big East. Under the current circumstances, the eight football teams at least want to add another football school so that they can have a more complete round-robin schedule and only have to schedule four out-of-conference games each year. That ninth football member would make for an uncomfortable 17 in most other sports.
The Big 10 can call its own shots. If the Big 10 were to add a team to get to 12, it’s been rumored that they’d turn to Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville or Rutgers in order to round out their conference. Pitt provides an in-state partner for Penn State and is a geographic fit. Syracuse is an academic and geographic fit. Louisville would extend the conference’s footprint into Kentucky. Rutgers is the most intriguing option because it would not only expand the conference eastward, but it would also give the Big 10 exposure in the country’s #1 media market: New York City.
On the other side of the country, the Pac 10 is discussing expansion as well. The addition of two teams gives them a logical two division format like the Big 12, SEC and ACC and gives them an opportunity to stage a conference championship. The Pac 10 has numerous choices for expansion, but eyes Texas as their number one target. UT won’t be easy to woo since they rule the Big 12 as it is now and get more than their fair share of revenue from the conference. Texas turned down Pac 10 membership in the mid-90s and will likely do so again. That decision may have already been made. Texas’ revenues from Football are the largest in the country. Why would they mess with a good thing?
That leads the Pac 10 to look at other avenues. Media market size is still important so you can count Boise State out of the mix. In fact, as important as football programs are, it will be media market that drives the train. Without the addition of the University of Texas-Austin, adding a Texas school is geographically improbable. That means TCU is likely out. Looking at it from a media market standpoint, the states of Utah and Colorado make the most sense for expanding the Pac 10′s presence. Pulling Colorado from the Big 12 might not be too difficult. Picking a Utah school might be obvious as well. If the Pac 10 membership can get past any ideological differences with BYU, the Cougars’ program might be a good pick. Otherwise, look to the University of Utah to pull the Salt Lake City market and the rest of the state into the Pac 10. Adding Colorado and a Utah school also makes sense from a time zone standpoint. In conference game time starts would only be an hour off when schools travel to a different time zone. The Pac 10 already has two Arizona schools that are in the Mountain Time Zone for part of the year.
One conference has to make the first move. If the Pac 10 picks up Colorado, then the Big 12 would have to pick up a team. Missouri has been rumored to be listening to offers from the Big 10, so don’t rule that out either. If the Big 12 loses one or two teams, they’d likely look to Arkansas of the SEC. While the SEC’s ESPN deal might prevent anyone from leaving, Arkansas does have an old rivalry with Texas and they’d love to play regular games against some of the other Big 12 schools.
If the SEC lost a team or two, you can bet they’d look to bolster their presence in Florida before they’d pick up schools like Memphis or West Virginia. Miami and Florida State might be ideal targets for the SEC. If those schools bolted, then the ACC would have to pick up schools. Losing Miami and Florida State would take the state of Florida from the conference. Would they add a school like UCF just to get their Florida presence back? Would the ACC look to West Virginia? Virginia, Virginia Tech and Maryland would likely welcome the Mountaineers into the fold. The SEC could also look at doubling down in Kentucky by adding Louisville.
So we’re back around to the Big East again. The Big East could lose West Virginia in the ACC scenario. They could also lose Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville or Rutgers. It’s been mentioned that Boston College is unhappy in the ACC because they are by far the furthest north. Even if the Big East splits along football lines, Boston College is a better fit in the Big East. Villanova just won the DI-AA championship and could very well be encouraged to make the leap to Division I-A football. Memphis, East Carolina, Marshall and UCF from Conference USA are desperate to move into a BCS conference. The Big East would be weakened by losing a team to the Big 10, possibly one to the SEC and one to the ACC, but if the Big East could pick up Boston College, Villanova (for Football), Memphis and East Carolina, they’d be on track for maintaining their BCS status.
One other scenario is still in play. Congress is considering legislative action against BCS schools. If Congress is successful at pressuring the NCAA and its BCS members, you could see the BCS grow in two ways. All schools may be forced to grow to 12 team status and a new BCS conference could be formed by the smaller institutions in the west who have routinely busted the BCS in recent years. Schools like TCU and Boise State could force their way into the party. A premium edition of the WAC/Mountain West would include Boise State, TCU, Brigham Young, Air Force and Nevada, and that merged conference might just push its way into BCS inclusion. If the Pac 10 were to add Utah, that would blunt some of the WAC/MWCs efforts to become big time.
The dominos are going to start to fall and the first move could come as soon as this spring. All it takes is one conference to push the first domino toward another.
Florida's Blowout of Cincinnati Proves the Merit of a Playoff System
Florida gave a great send off to Tim Tebow and possibly Urban Meyer with their convincing win over Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. BCS purists and advocates for the current system will claim that it’s proof that things don’t need to change. After all, Florida is an SEC team. They’re the blue blood program. They’re supposed to win. That’s where I disagree with the Bowl System.
College football’s so called Championship system shouldn’t be about rewarding the Blue Bloods and making the “imposters” prove their worth. Cincinnati was pretty much counted out of the Sugar Bowl game before it even began. There was too much at stake for Florida and virtually nothing at stake for Cincinnati. There was no championship to win. Cincinnati’s coach was gone. That game would have been better had it meant something for both teams. Cincinnati deserved their #4 ranking going into the game. They were unbeaten. Without their head coach and with little to play for, their season ended in a whimper.
We’ll see a game of two so-called posers on Monday night when TCU takes on Boise State in a game where both teams should have had a shot at proving their championship mettle on the field. In this case, making them play each other doesn’t prove anything. It only proves that one team will finish the season undefeated and that team will be left out of the conversation regardless of what they do on the field.
It’s been said before. I’ll say it again. It’s time for a playoff system. It’s time for the BCS cartel to stop hiding behind excuses and start sharing their money with everyone. A playoff system would reward teams for a good season and would keep BCS teams from hiding from the TCUs, Boise States and Utahs during the regular season. TCU is most highly regarded because they were able to schedule several BCS teams in the regular season. Don’t expect that to continue. Now that TCU presents more than just a competitive game and more of a chance for an “L”, BCS schools will be reticent to help TCU build their championship resume. After all, an inconference loss to another BCS team is seen as a loss to a peer. An out-0f-conference loss to a team seen as a stepbrother can be damning.
Cincinnati is part of the BCS. They’re a Big East team, yet they’re still seen as one of the have nots. They’re a Johnny come lately. It’s time for the madness to stop and something akin to March Madness can begin. It’s good enough for DIAA, Division II and Division III. Why not for the big boys? Because there’s too much money at stake to make them change the system. Look for the BCS to start including more of the have nots or their current system could be threatened by legal action. Don’t be surprised if there’s conference expansion in the near future, not to create a playoff system but to keep some of the rising have-nots quiet.